The probability of glow-in-the-dark employees given a meltdown is 0.5, and the probability of glow-in-the-dark employees given Homer is an idiot is 0.05 (P(Homer is an Idiot) = 1.0). Should these combine in a fashion similar to the noisy-or combination of inferior Pu and heavy water, i.e. is P(GitD|MD,Homer) = 0.525 or simply 0.5?
Also, is the same true of Apu's bad Squishie machine, the meltdown, and watery squishies?
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It seems like there is no reason that they should not combine in noisy-or fashion. If the meltdown occurs, there is a chance that it will not cause glow-in-the-dark employees. However, Homer being an idiot could still potentially cause GitD to happen.
ReplyDeleteThe same would hold for the slushie machine; even if the power outage didn't cause bad slushies, the bad machine could cause it anyway.